Regions

England
   North East
   North West
   Yorkshire
   East Midlands
   West Midlands
   East
   South East
   South West
   London
Not England
   N Ireland
   Scotland
   Wales
Great Britain
United Kingdom

Liberal Democrats

Description

The Liberal Democrats have not prospered from their Westminster coalition with the Conservatives. For example, in the 2012 local elections they got 16% of the vote, down 10 points from the 26% they got in 2010. Or consider Scotland, where their vote share halved in the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2011 and almost halved in the local elections the next year.

So it seems likely that the Lib Dem vote will go down. This is a particular problem for them because there's an implied hurdle in the voting system at about 10% of the vote: a party that gets less than that is likely to be under-represented in seats. For example, if the Lib Dems lose half their votes, they'll be down to two seats, one in South East England and the other in South West England.

With all this in mind, it's likely that the Lib Dems will treat the European election as a damage limitation exercise, looking to retain their existing seats rather than gaining new ones. Ironically, the hardest seat for them to keep may be the region where they did best in 2009, North East England, because there are only 3 seats in the region.

Result in 2009 for Lib Dem

Region Votes %Vote Quotas Seats Graph
NE England 103,644 17.57 0.70 1/3
SW England 266,253 17.18 1.20 1/6
NW England 235,639 14.26 1.28 1/8
SE England 330,340 14.15 1.56 2/10
East of England 221,235 13.80 1.10 1/7
London 240,156 13.72 1.23 1/8
Yorkshire 161,552 13.18 0.92 1/6
East Midlands 151,428 12.34 0.74 1/5
West Midlands 170,246 12.05 0.96 1/7
Scotland 127,038 11.50 0.81 1/6
Wales 73,082 10.68 0.53 0/4
Total 2,080,613 13.75 11/70
England 1,880,493 14.09 10/60
North England 500,835 14.44 3/17
Midlands 321,674 12.18 2/12
South England 1,057,984 14.62 5/31
Not England 200,120 8.80 1/13
Great Britain 2,080,613 13.75 11/70
United Kingdom 2,080,613 13.32 11/73

Key:

  • Votes - the votes the party got in that region
  • %Vote - the percentage of total votes in that region the party got
  • Quotas - the number of d'Hondt quotas the party got. A party is guaranteed a seat for each quota it gets, and may receive more. This is a measure of how close a party is to getting a seat.
  • Seats - how many seats the party got out of the total available
  • Graph - a bargraph of the party's vote share in a region