The Liberal Democrats have not prospered from their Westminster coalition with the Conservatives. For example, in the 2012 local elections they got 16% of the vote, down 10 points from the 26% they got in 2010. Or consider Scotland, where their vote share halved in the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2011 and almost halved in the local elections the next year.
So it seems likely that the Lib Dem vote will go down. This is a particular problem for them because there's an implied hurdle in the voting system at about 10% of the vote: a party that gets less than that is likely to be under-represented in seats. For example, if the Lib Dems lose half their votes, they'll be down to two seats, one in South East England and the other in South West England.
With all this in mind, it's likely that the Lib Dems will treat the European election as a damage limitation exercise, looking to retain their existing seats rather than gaining new ones. Ironically, the hardest seat for them to keep may be the region where they did best in 2009, North East England, because there are only 3 seats in the region.
|East of England||221,235||13.80||1.10||1/7|