Labour did very badly in 2009. To put it into historical perspective, they got their lowest vote share in any nationwide election since the December 1910 general election. In South West England less than 3% of the electorate voted for them, an appalling result for a governing party.
But then they were in government, and at the end of an unpopular worn-out government to boot. Now they're in opposition. There is usually an anti-government swing in European elections, and 2014 is unlikely to be different. Furthermore, it's not just the Tories who are in government, the Lib Dems are too. This means that not only will the Lib Dems lose votes due to being in government, they will also fail to pick up protest votes, which could go Labour's way instead.
Will Labour come first in 2014? It looks that either they or UKIP will.
|East of England||167,833||10.47||0.84||1/7|